For over half a century, Europe lived inside a geopolitical illusion. Protected by American power, fueled by Russian gas, and enriched by global trade—especially between China and the U.S.—the continent prospered without having to project power.
That world is gone.
Now, Europe faces economic contraction, energy insecurity, and a creeping decline in living standards. Its postwar order has collapsed, and its posture toward Russia has shifted sharply—not just out of moral outrage, but from the realization that the continent’s comfort rested on fragile foundations. As these pressures mount, the idea of Europe seeking to subdue or reshape Russia is no longer unthinkable.
The End of Cheap Security
Since 1945, Europe has relied on the American security umbrella. NATO allowed the continent to downsize its armies and invest in welfare. But President Donald Trump’s return to office has reintroduced a transactional logic to alliances. U.S. defense guarantees are now conditional—and potentially unreliable. Europe is scrambling to rearm, but decades of underinvestment leave it vulnerable and exposed.
Energy Collapse
Russia’s war in Ukraine forced Europe to sever its reliance on cheap Russian gas. That rupture unleashed an energy shock, shuttered key industries, and drove household costs to new heights. Inflation surged. Power bills spiked. And for the first time in decades, Europeans experienced energy as scarcity, not certainty.
The fallout has been real: industrial closures, rising energy poverty, and a blow to Germany’s economic engine. Europe’s substitutes—American LNG, renewables—are more expensive and less stable. The continent’s standard of living has taken a visible hit.
A Broken Trade Model
Europe’s export-heavy economies thrived on a triangular model: make in Europe, build with China, sell to the U.S. That triangle is breaking. U.S.-China tensions, renewed tariffs, and strategic decoupling are squeezing Europe’s supply chains. Global demand is weakening, protectionism is rising, and Europe is losing access to both inputs and markets.
The result: rising unemployment, shrinking margins, and political unrest. The economic center no longer holds, and the middle class is starting to feel it.
Beyond Ukraine: The Russian Prize
Europe’s support for Ukraine isn’t only about democracy or borders—it’s about what comes after. Russia holds vast reserves of gas, oil, and minerals that Europe desperately needs. The long-term vision, whispered behind closed doors, is clear: a defeated or fragmented Russia could become a source of energy and materials once again—this time under Western terms.
Europe doesn’t need to occupy Russia. It needs to contain it, influence its future, and secure access to its vast resources. That ambition, however unstated, is reshaping its strategy.
Strategic Reawakening
The era of cheap security, cheap energy, and frictionless trade is over. Europe must now reinvent itself as a geopolitical actor—militarized, self-reliant, and ready to shape its surroundings.
The war in Ukraine may be only the beginning. What follows could be a much larger project: not just deterring Russia, but transforming the balance of power on the continent.
The age of comfort is over. The age of confrontation is just beginning.
